chez Nadezhda

Are QIZ's a copout?

praktike — Sat, 18 Dec 2004 14:20:00 -0500

So it sure seems like good news that Egypt, the United States, and Israel are going to start cooperating on "qualified industrial zones," which are industrial zones from which certain jointly-produced goods can be freely exported to the United States. Pioneered in China, I believe, QIZ's have been used to seemingly great effect in Jordan. One of the arguments in favor of putting economic liberalization ahead of political reform is that the former will inevitably lead to the latter as a rising middle class begins to demand political rights commensurate with its economic clout. Another assumption (which I tend to share) is that the importation of new rule sets in one area (e.g. economic regulation) tend to require accompanying rule set changes in other areas (e.g. property rights, banking reform). But at the same time as the U.S. is trying to set up special enclaves in the short run, it is also working to liberalize the economies of the region as a whole in the long run. Skeptics of the "economy first" approach will point to the fact that in Jordan, political repression remains de rigeur. The Jordanian press, for instance, is neither free nor lively; woe betide any who criticize King Abdullah. And the effects of the vaunted economic liberalization of the 90s are hard to separate from the fact that Jordan was benefitting from the below market-priced oil it was getting from Saddam. But if this is true, QIZ's may already be doing some good in the social arena by bringing more women into the workplace. And greater financial independence will inevitably lead to calls for greater women's rights.

And maybe, as this Jerusalem Post article suggests, QIZ's are all the system can handle right now. With America's reputation at a nadir in the region (as Rabat painfully showed), our ability to influence the internal dynamics of Arab states is even more limited than in the past. But I hope people don't lose sight of the larger goal of fostering dialogue between Israeli and Arab publics, which is ultimately the way to build a lasting peace in the region. Consider this a qualified endorsement.

UPDATE: A dissenting view from inveterate Jordan-watcher Abu Aardvark! Good thing I qualified my endorsement, eh? He points to this piece in Middle East Report Online by Pete Moore, a political scientist at Miami who likes the word "schwerpunkt." The funny thing is that I had actually read the piece some time ago but forgotten about it. I obviously haven't spent a lot of time thinking about the Jordanian economy, but these guys have. And here's what they say:

Jordan is a small, lower middle-income, country with per capita income of about $1,700, and a young population of about 5 million (population growing by about 2.8 percent per annum), seventy percent of whom are below the age of 30. The country has been subject to a large number of external shocks, especially in the 1990s with the first Gulf war and the return of migrant worker, the continuing difficult situation in the West Bank and Gaza, and the situation in Iraq which has been a traditionally important export market-quite apart from the negative impacts of regional conflict on tourism and foreign and domestic investment. Given the size and frequency of these shocks, Jordan has done well on reforms, accelerating them across a wide area, including macroeconomic stabilization, trade and private investment, privatization and sectoral reforms. As a result, recent growth has been relatively robust and the economy has grown more resilient to shocks. Structural reforms have also continued.

Jordan, a middle income country, without significant natural resources, relies primarily on its human capital for development. Over the past decade, Jordan has focused on human resource investment, structural reforms and fiscal discipline to enhance opportunities for growth and stability. Performance trends have been mixed over the decade, but over the past three years, despite adverse external factors, Jordan’s strategy has produced positive and promising results. [...]

Jordan’s chief development challenge is to address the poverty that has grown in the past decade. It is estimated that only 3 percent of the population was poor at the end of the 1980s, but by 1992 the proportion rose to 14.4 percent, and the number of poor increased more than six-fold. In the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War, a combination of factors contributed to this sharp increase: the collapse of oil prices, the return of approximately 300,000 Jordanians from the Gulf countries, and the subsequent drop in worker remittances from neighboring oil-producing countries. In 2001, 11.2 percent of the population was below the poverty line.

So that sounds like mixed results to me, but it would be hard to blame the QIZ's for them. For instance, going back to the Moore article, what does "continued violence in the Occupied Territories" have to do with QIZ's? But Moore does point to some troubling issues, notably, the ability of foreign firms to swoop in and collect the benefits of the program and to "ensure an exclusive distribution of rewards." That seems to defeat the whole purpose, doesn't it? But it seems like some tweaks to the rules could fix that. Moore goes on to claim that "This newest, "free trade Jordan" has necessitated a steady reversal of the political liberalization welcomed by Jordanians in the late 1980s and early 1990s. I'm not sure I see the logic of that assertion, and Moore doesn't provide an explanation as to why there would necessarily be a link between the two. Indeed, Moore contradicts himself by the end when he says that "at a minimum, the hard work of securing a comprehensive peace, making the necessary political sacrifices and expanding meaningful political participation needs to be pursued as vigorously as freer trade." So it doesn't seem like the political repression was necessitated by the economic liberalization after all.

So it's possible that QIZ's have been a net negative for Jordan, but Moore hasn't proved it. It's more likely that other factors are at work here, such as the fact that two of Jordan's big markets, the West Bank and Iraq have been either partially shut off or in turmoil for much of the last decade. As for the political repression, my guess is that it has more to do with King Abdullah's unwillingness to brook dissent on relations with Israel and the United States than it does with economic liberalization per se. Now, one could argue that the U.S. is being irrational here by insisting on political compliance in exchange for economic goodies, and that this is a foolhardy strategy for achieving peace with Israel, but that's not the same thing as saying that qualified industrial zones don't create jobs.

Google goes to Egypt (sort of)

praktike — Thu, 18 Nov 2004 12:20:00 -0500

Google is the Kleenex of the Internet World:

(via mindbleed)

Democratic Stirrings in Egypt

praktike — Mon, 25 Oct 2004 00:04:00 -0400

I don't know enough about Egyptian politics to be able to say how unprecedented this is, but it is encouraging:

More than 650 politicians, activists and intellectuals issued a landmark joint statement saying they will push to amend Egypt's constitution to prevent Hosni Mubarak, the country's president for almost a quarter of a century, from standing for another term next year.

Mubarak, 76, has been Egypt's president and leader of the National Democratic Party since replacing his assassinated predecessor, Anwar Sadat, in 1981. His current six-year term ends in October, 2005 and he has not chosen a successor. In four previous presidential referendums, which require Egyptians to vote yes or no, he has been the sole candidate.

Some 689 people, ranging from Islamists to Communists and including 30 lawmakers, signed a petition Saturday in the name of The Popular Campaign for Reforms, an umbrella group formed last month to try to amend Egypt's constitution to limit a president to holding two terms only.

Among the signatories, including 26 human rights and civil society groups and opposition political parties, was the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest Islamic group, which has 17 members represented in the Egyptian parliament as independents.

The petition, a copy of which was faxed to The Associated Press, said maintaining the system of one-man rule in Egypt would be "an obstacle to all opportunities for reform and progress which the country needs in order to face political, social and economical challenges."

These included curbing the spread of corruption, deterioration of public services, price increases, fall in standard of living and rising unemployment levels, the petition said.

How will the U.S. react? It's time to see if we're serious about this whole "democracy in the Middle East" thing.

UPDATE [10:01 AM 10/25/04] by praktike: Issandr El Amrani of the Arabist network is optimistic yet cynical:

The left and the Islamists have taken some time to get together and find common ground, but at least they finally have. The group that’s still missing, though, is precisely the one Western powers would most like to see succeed the military regime: the “liberal” businessmen who have been nurtured for years as a rising force in Egyptian politics and are now – to a certain extent – represented by Gamal Mubarak and his cronies.

Hmmm.

Abu Aardvark has more analysis. Short version: it isn't unprecedented, and the fact that the reformers appealed to the AP is a sign of weakness. And Gamal Mubarak is being put forward within the NDP as a reformer, but he's an unknown quantity and he happens to be the son of a dictator, which undercuts his reformist credentials.

So that's what that was

praktike — Fri, 22 Oct 2004 09:02:00 -0400

A high-minded review of Cairo's Azhar Park, the new green space that is just out of view in this photo of mine. Now I understand what my guide at the Blue Mosque was trying to tell me.

While a park is certainly superior to a garbage dump, my hunch is that the park itself isn't going to be the kind of revitalizing influence that its designers intended it to be. Across a major thoroughfare, atop a hill and surrounded by walls, it isn't connected to the fabric of the neighborhood at all. The history of urban design is littered with the detritus of grandiose but ultimately inhuman monuments to the ego of the designer. It's the people, stupid! (And the connectivity) What's more, it isn't catered to the needs of the residents, who would probably greatly prefer soccer fields to formal gardens. Nor does there seem to be a plan for the type of development spillover that such urban parks are usually designed to generate. My old prof, Alexander Garvin, would raise his elfin eyebrows at the missed opportunity. Vincent Scully would bemoan the inhumanity of it all, and mumble something uplifting about the ancient Greeks. And David Sucher, if he weren't such a mild-mannered fellow, would have a conniption.

Far more beneficial than the park, I think, are the kinds of community building activities being undertaken by the Aga Khan Trust for Culture--training locals to renovate and upgrade their own neighborhood, educating them about the rich architectural and cultural heritage of Islamic Cairo, involving them in the revitalization process. The architectural visitor's center is an overdue idea; hopefully it will be a meeting point for tourists and interested residents alike.

All of which, of course, the Times reporter Nicolai Ouroussoff is saying in the article, but in a fancier way.

UPDATE: [2:10 PM 10/25/04] by praktike: Thoughts on the park from "Hellme," one of the few Egyptian bloggers I've come across:

The first thing that comes to mind is the question of how long it will take the locals to ruin the new Agha Khan Azhar Gardens (eloquently covered in this article). Knowing Egyptians, and knowing the flood of people that decend on the Giza Zoo whenever the weather allows or during public holidays, I have a haunting suspicion that Al Azhar's garden's - a multimillion project that demands as much attention as the Alexandria Bibliotheca - will wither away and die, and become a distant remnant of what Cairo could be, but isn't. I also wonder whether I'm just being obtusely pessimistic without cause.

Cheerio.

Dude, I was so there!

praktike — Tue, 12 Oct 2004 01:19:00 -0400

Heh.

Check out the photograph in this Times story about Al Azhar's attempt to centralize the call to prayer in Cairo.

Then go check out my own pictures.

Baksheesh Culture

praktike — Tue, 28 Sep 2004 15:38:00 -0400

A pervasive element of daily life in Egypt is the baksheesh or bribe. As a tourist, almost everywhere you go you are hit up for money. Upon entering a cultural site, an amateur tour guide usually sweeps in to offer his services, after which a tip is expected. And simply getting from point A to point B in a taxi involves haggling over prices, and even then you aren't guaranteed that your driver won't try to jerk you around.

According to Egyptians expatriates I've spoken with, this aspect of Egyptian society extends to the workplace as well; in order to get ahead or get things done, one has to know who to pay off when. Mere talent and hard work are no guarantees of earthly rewards, a frustrating situation for those who just want to make an honest living. In America, we have laws but more importantly a culture that inveighs strongly against corrupt behavior, and for the most part punishes it when it is exposed (although we're no Finland!)

I gather that this "baksheesh culture" is an aspect of developing societies around the world. Data from Transparency International suggests that corruption among public officials and low GDP per capita go together. What I wonder is, which is the chicken and which is the egg? Can a country, by embarking on a program of reform like that mentioned here, break out of the grip of poverty? How important a factor is reduced corruption in increased growth? Or does economic competition somehow tend to make corruption less viable?

Probably a bad PR move

praktike — Tue, 28 Sep 2004 10:35:00 -0400

I noticed that the tourist attractions in Coptic Cairo--which include several Coptic churches, the Coptic Museum, the Ben Ezra Synagogue, and the remains of some Rome fortifications--were being renovated in part with funds from USAID, whereas the reconstruction of mosques and Ottoman houses of Islamic Cairo was assisted by funds from the European Union. Indeed, as I mentioned below, Al Azhar Mosque's muezzin gave America the thumbs down because he said we didn't contribute to the rebuilding of the district after the 1992 earthquake. Granted, the US has given over 25 billions dollars in aid to the Egyptian government, but this seems like a missed opportunity.

UPDATE [9/28/04/ 12:40 PM] by praktike: I should add that Coptic Christians do face persecution in Egypt, as documented here. I had tea, briefly, at the home of an elderly Coptic couple whose arms were tattoed with their date of birth and the Coptic cross. I still haven't figured out if this is some sort of government policy, but it is clear that there is a great deal of discrimation against them. About 1.5 million Egyptian Copts now live in the United States.

Prayer in Cairo

praktike — Tue, 28 Sep 2004 10:25:00 -0400

We Americans tend to overestimate, I think, the extent to which Islam permeates daily life in the Arab world.

While one can hear the call to prayer ("Allahu ... Akhbar") repeated loudly from most quarters of Cairo at the appropriate times, only true believers appear to actually perform their Islamic duty with regularity. While it was common to see a fewmen praying on carpets outside the smaller, newer mosques in commercial areas (they're kind of like convenience stores for religion), only on Friday did I see any mosques filled anywhere near to capacity.

Nonetheless, a very large percentage of men in Cairo do have a dark, raised spot on their forehead indicating a lifetime devoted to prayer. I think most people must pray privately, or not at all.

The above photo

praktike — Tue, 28 Sep 2004 00:02:00 -0400

Quick note on the above photo [praktike's place], which was not taken by me, although I have a similar one waiting to be uploaded.

It's a view westward towards the Nile, from the Citadel originally fortified in the 12th century by Salah al-Dinh, the legendary Kurdish warrior who defied the evil Crusaders. In the 19th century, the Citadel complex more or less was given its current form by Mohammed Ali, the Ottoman ruler who spawned the royal dynasty that ruled Egypt until King Faruq's abdication in 1952. Here's the full history of the Citadel. Today, tourists can visit three mosques on the site, along with the strange Military and Police Museums and some other stuff.

The two buildings dominating the photo above are the Sultan Hassan Mosque and Madrasa and the al-Rifai Mosque. While they look similar, the former was built in the 13th century (Mamluk period) while the latter was only finished in 1911 in the same style. You can't see this in the photo, but the thick outer wall of the Sultan Hassan Mosque and Madrasa contains two or three beauty marks from when Napoleon's troops rained cannon fire down upon some Egyptian rebels hiding out in the complex. The al-Rifai Mosque is far less impressive architecturally and historically; it is disinguished mostly by the fact that is the final resting place of King Faruq and the last Shah of Iran. So you get two loser Middle East monarchs for the price of one admission ticket!

Briefly Noted

praktike — Mon, 27 Sep 2004 10:29:00 -0400

Security procedures at Frankfurt International Airport are much more stringent than those at any airport I've been to in the United States. Everyone going through the checkpoint gets a good, old-fashioned wanding, and the security questions are asked in a serious rather than pro forma manner. The process takes forever, but it does inspire confidence in those otherwise feckless, terrorist-appeasing Germans.

That said, U.S. Customs and Immigration are far more serious than their counterparts abroad. Upon returning to Pittsburgh, I was asked about my hat (featuring a Cal Berkeley Golden Bear), my job, and what exactly I had been up to abroad. I think the purpose was to determine whether I was, in fact, a real American, although it's unclear whether associating myself with the good communists at Berkeley helped or hurt my case.

The Rational Peasant

praktike — Mon, 27 Sep 2004 09:03:00 -0400

I'm vaguely aware that there's a book about Vietnam by this title, but in this case I'm talking about a kind of informal theory that, according to my source, has gained credence among development experts with enough real-world experience to become somewhat cynical.

My source in this case is a wonderful and wonderfully garrulous British development specialist I met in Diwa, a bookstore in Zamalek catering to expats and upper-class Egyptians. (Yes, rather than spending my time in Khan el-Khalili market searching for precious trinkets to take home, I looked instead for books. What can I say? I'm a big nerd). Anyway, this gentleman had spent time in Tanzania and Gaza, among other places, and had recently been sent to Egypt as part of a project for the Finnish government. He saw me browsing the small development section of the bookstore, and, noting my interest, began to regale me with tales and insights from his world.

One point that stuck with me in particular was his notion of the Rational Peasant, because I had been walking around Cairo and seeing much behavior that struck me as bizarre. In Cairo, as opposed to places like Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, it's nearly impossible to avoid being confronted with Egypt's endemic poverty. It's quite common to see fellahin walking with donkeys pulling carts loaded with vegetables, fruits, or bread from the rural areas south and north of the city--20 and 30 kilometers away from the point of sale (usually the side of the road). This, for instance, struck me as irrational in an era of highways, buses, and trains. Why couldn't these peasant farmers save themselves (and their donkeys) the trouble and simply sell their produce to a middleman, who would then transport the goods and sell to shops? Or band together with friends, borrow money, and purchase an old truck to share?

Obviously, many did so, or the streets would have been overrun with donkey carts. But what my new friend told me he had learned in his years of development work was that it was important not to assume that peasants hadn't considered these possibilities. Given their need to survive above all else, peasant farmers will seek to minimize their risks, even if doing so means forgoing the opportunity to build a better life. He told me a story of a time in Tanzania when his team arranged to purchase cows for a village that didn't have any. Didn't they know that cows could be used to plow their fields more easily?

Sadly, all of the cows died a few days after they arrived. The culprit? The dreaded tse-tse fly. Had the team simply asked the villagers why they didn't have any cows, they could have saved themselves the trouble.

Hello from Cairo!

praktike — Thu, 23 Sep 2004 04:40:00 -0400

After about a week or so here, I think I'm finally able to collect some of my thoughts.

I'm sitting here in Egistone Internet Cafe in Zemalek, the northern section of an upscale island in the middle of the Nile. Next door is a small mosque, and neary are dozens of small restaurants, shops, and travel agencies. The neighborhood is leafy and, for Cairo, relatively quiet -- hence the good folks at the Lonely Planet termed it "continental" in character. And indeed, several European embassies can be found here, as well as the American University dorms. The stores cater to rich young Cairenes, most of whom are dressed in the latest European styles (although quite a few young women still wear the hijab). After an exhausting week of traipsing off to various tourist sites, Zemalek feels almost like home.

On seemingly every block is an Egyptian policeman in a pristine white uniform, holding a rifle or an AK-47. Knowing this would be the case, I had thought going into the trip that I would be bothered by their presence; however, they have almost always been friendly and welcoming to me. Apparently since the 1997 attacks in Luxor, tourists venturing out to rural areas are routinely accompanied by police escorts. I can imagine many Egyptians resenting the fact that so many policemen are there to protect foreigners--one could extend this resentment to the government of Egypt itself and its willingness to support American interests. Nevertheless, I saw few signs of anger at Americans or at the Egyptian government. Other than one bit of graffitti advocating a boycott of American products, my visit to al-Azhar Mosque at 8 am on Sunday morning was the only flash of open anti-American sentiment I've witnessed, as the muezzin (my tour guide) nodded approvingly when I lied and told him I was Canadian, saying "America no!" Mostly, everyone just seemed to be going about their daily lives. Every once in a while as I was walking around, someone (usually a teenaged boy) would say "Hello. Welcome to Egypt!"

Cairo, it must be said, is a big and boisterous place. It's also filthy; a thick film of grime seems to cover nearly every surface of the city, and the air is toxic. While there are some oases of cleanliness and peace to be found, these are few and far between. Signs at tourist sites, if they even exist, are usually obscured by dust so that even new signs look like they've been there for some time. Generally speaking, most Cairenes seem to have either resigned themselves to the dust and dirt, or don't notice it. It's part of the urban fabric, as is the constant sound of (usually dented) cars honking as they weave in and out of the omnipresent traffic jams. Merely crossing the street is an adventure.

This is the first time I've traveled alone as well as the longest amount of time I've spent in a truly developing country, and I have to say that I'm relieved to be returning home tomorrow. Cairo has been overwhelming. I'm actually somewhat disappointed in myself, having traveled extensively and therefore thought of myself as a "good traveler." But never have I felt so much like a stranger in a strange land. And never have I felt more like an American. Almost everywhere I went (except for the major landmarks), I was the only foreigner, and I've met very few Egyptians with sufficient English skills to allow for conversation much beyond "Where are you from? Welcome to Cairo?" Those that did speak English almost invariably saw me as a mark, and more than once I think I drastically overpaid for this or that. I presume that learning Egyptian Arabic is the key to liberation in this regard, and I look forward to not being a tourist when I return in January.

Judging solely by appearances, I have to say that Cairo looks like it has a long way to go before it can be considered "on the move." If anything, it seems that everything was built several decades ago, since which time progress has stopped. A great deal of the building stock of the city is decaying, and even presumably important places like Ministry buildings and the airport smack of neglect. I imagine that the city's pervasive smog, which mercilessly blackens all outdoor surfaces, leads Cairenes to say "why bother?" One can find remnants such as handicapped signs on some sidewalk ramps, that speak of failed attempts to make the city more inhabitable, but neglect is the operative word.

Cairo and/or Bust

praktike — Mon, 13 Sep 2004 14:16:00 -0400

On Wednesday I leave for a 10-day trip to Cairo.

Right now I'm more than a little nervous; I'm hoping to be inspired and not intimidated by what I find. I've been somewhat cloistered here in Pittsburgh, keeping mostly to myself and trying to learn as much as I can about foreign policy and nation-building, especially as relates to the Middle East. My post-college job experience working for an environmental non-profit has been disappointing, so I'm looking for a completely different experience: an opportunity to learn something new every day just by walking outside my door, to be utterly challenged by my very surroundings. So I'm heading to Egypt both because I've always wanted to visit and because I'm strongly considering taking leave of these United States in order to begin studying Arabic at the American University of Cairo in January. This is more than a standard tourist trip: it's a test.

Assuming I can find an Internet Cafe, I'll try to post my impressions here in my Egypt Diary, and some photos in the associated gallery.

I can't promise anything profound, but I do promise I'll write something.