Jim Wolfensohn is now fully engaged in what will be one of the toughest jobs in the world in the coming few months -- helping the Israelis and Palestinians navigate the Gaza withdrawal and prepare for its aftermath. At Gleneagles, he received support from the G8 for something, but exactly what the G8 promised is somewhat unclear. The relevant text from the G8:
We support Mr Wolfensohn’s intention to stimulate a global financial contribution of up to $3bn per year over the coming three years. Domestic and international investors should be full partners to this process. We are mobilising practical support for Mr Wolfensohn’s efforts and look forward to further development of his plans and their presentation to the Quartet and the international community in September. We note the strong interest of Arab States and members of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, and encourage them to provide substantial additional support.This is a somewhat different formulation from the headlines from Blair's press conference at the close of the meetings. The pres generally heralded a G8 "commitment" to provide (up to?) $3 billion over several years. The "commitment" (to support a plan) was echoed in the "news story" produced by the State Department:
Progress was also made on promoting peace in the Middle East, with the G8 leaders agreeing to support a plan to provide the Palestinian Authority up to $3 billion over three years to help spur economic development and governance necessary for the Palestinians to capably govern themselves and provide stability in Palestinian territories.To tease out from all of this the probable reality. The official document refers to a Wolfensohn plan to mobilize around $9 billion over a three-year period, with funding to come from Arab and Muslim countries and the private sector, not just from the G8. And the only official agreement from the G8 members is to "mobilize practical support" and meet in September. So in effect, they've given JDW a green-light to put a package together, and they seem to have penciled in somewhere in the neighborhood of a third of the financing he's proposing to raise. But it's his plan to go raise all this money, not theirs.
Now a green light like that is all that a world class dealmaker needs to get going, and remember that Wolfensohn made his fortune as an investment banker. So taking full advantage of the headlines ($3 billion commitment, yahoo!), Wolfensohn has just begun a six-day trip to the region by meeting with Mohammed Dahlan, who is currently the Palestinians' civil affairs minister.
[...]Wolfensohn... described his meeting with Dahlan as "a very pragmatic and frank discussion" that dealt with all aspects of social and economic matters.Lots of questions up in the air, such as where the funding is to come from for "immediate" projects, or whether Congress will continue to hamstring the Bush Administration by forbidding any monies to pass through the hands of the PA. Perhaps State is hoping that Congress will ease up once there's an overall international plan, with effective oversight mechanisms, through which the US contributions would flow.
"I was asked by the G8 to come back (at the end of September) with a plan devised with the Palestinian Authority (PA) for this economic support," he said.
"We are looking very carefully at tangible evidence that will be shown to the Palestinian people a day after the withdrawal," he said. "We're talking about programmes which will be implemented immediately."
[...]Wolfensohn's visit will see him meeting with top Israeli and Palestinian officials in a bid to focus on six areas that require coordination, a statement from his office said.
They include: border crossings and trade corridors, connection of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, freedom of movement in the West Bank, the establishment of an airport and sea ports in Gaza, the houses which will be evacuated by the Gaza settlers, and the settlers' greenhouses.
He was also to work with the Palestinians on three key economic and developmental issues: resolution of the PA's fiscal crisis and establishment of a new social safety net programme; a package of "rapid impact" initiatives for dealing with unemployment immediately after the withdrawal, and a three-year plan for Palestinian development. [emph added ed.]
That being said, Wolfensohn already knows his portfolio well -- a significant part of the assessments and planning that he will be drawing on has been produced by the organization he headed for ten years until just a month ago, the World Bank. A considerable number of studies and reports on the specific issues he listed have been produced over the last several years by the Bank's staff, working closely with both Israelis and Palestinians. And on security issues with others, especially the Egyptians.
Wolfensohn's intimate knowledge of the politics, the players, and the technical issues, his ability to use the media adeptly, and his dealmaking skills when it comes to raising money from both public and private sources -- plus the sheer force of his personality -- make him uniquely qualified for this almost impossible task. The main risk -- other than the general explosiveness of the whole situation -- is that JDW sure is fond of personal glory, as Sebastian Mallaby has amply detailed. But JDW has learned a lot of lessons over the past ten years, and in the final analysis, he's also a realist.
Here's hoping that being the Quartet's envoy won't be a totally thankless task.
cross-posted at Liberals Against Terrorism
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