For another look at internet coverage, this time from the other side of the Atlantic, scotsman.com's "lazy guide to net culture" is serious, not cheeky, for once this week. The SEA-EAT site (see sidebar) is cited as a stand-out.

The unending human toll of the catastrophe, the explosive conditions of disorder in some already conflict-ridden areas, the process of a global community inventing mechanisms to mobilze resources in a timeframe and on a scale not seen before -- we will be feeling the ripple effects of the tsunami for some time to come. To keep track of day-to-day developments and longer term consequences, we've added a new category under "global threats and responses."

As prak has been following, the US is now quite publicly gearing up across the board to mobilize not only money and supplies but the transportation, logistics and assessment teams required. Looks like Thailand will be a major center of operations for the US, at least before other naval resources have made their way to the region.

Berlusconi has just called for the G-8 to take a joint response. And France and Germany are leading an effort for the Paris Club to address debt relief for the affected countries. The outpouring of donations from the wealthy countries, both public and private, continues to grow along with the death toll.

Although the most efficient way of providing private assistance right now is to the big NGOs which, in turn, can triage needs and allocate funds, many of us want to feel that we're somehow doing more, or making a more direct difference. Individuals are beginning to ask how they can volunteer to help directly -- which is currently a major challenge due to the simple constraints of transporting people and supplies to affected areas. The need for volunteers is more likely to be critical in the months to come, as millions of homeless, already vulnerable and leading a marginal existence, struggle to get back on their feet.

At the grassroots level of assistance delivery, there are already local organizations on the ground that are shifting their attention from their longer-term economic and social development programs to the immediate requirements of their "clients." The online development network, Global Giving, which we've highlighted in other posts and in the sidebar, already has a page of local projects in India working to help tsunami victims. It will undoubtedly expand in both number of projects and countries covered in the future, so it's worth watching closely to see what specific needs can be addressed with donations.

Our initial post on places to go for good information on the tsunami, its impact, and news about victims and survivors, as well as sites to visit about assistance is here.

Not a total surprise, given the inevitable burgeoning PR debacle, but the Office of Foreign Assets Control at Treasury has seen fit to reverse itself.

We've been carping, along with many other friendly bloggers who follow things Iranian, about Treasury's abusrd rule that extended US sanctions against Iran, Cuba and Sudan to publications of dissident authors.

The United States eased a controversial ban on publications from Iran, Sudan and Cuba on Wednesday in a bid to allow dissidents to be heard while maintaining an embargo on official documents.

The rule change by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control comes after Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi sued the United States because its economic embargo on Iran blocked U.S. publication of her memoirs.

"OFAC's previous guidance was interpreted by some as discouraging the publication of dissident speech from within these oppressive regimes. That is the opposite of what we want," Stuart Levey, Treasury's undersecretary for the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, said in a statement.

"This new policy will ensure those dissident voices and others will be heard without undermining our sanctions policy," Levey said.

The new rule allows U.S. publishers to engage in "most ordinary publishing activities" with people in Cuba, Iran and Sudan, while maintaining restrictions on interactions with government officials and agents of those countries.
[...]

The KMT and its allies have apparently won the parliamentary elections.

Taiwan opposition wins parliamentary poll

An opposition alliance which favours friendly ties with China defeated a pro-independence grouping in Taiwan's parliamentary election according to official vote count figures quoted by Eastern TV.

As long as Chen is still President it's unlikely the Chinese will loosen up on their refusal to talk with Taiwan. But since the elections were viewed by both sides as a referendum on whether to proceed with amending the Taiwanese constitution, this will hopefully reduce the amount of delicate navigating the US is forced to do.

For an interesting view of the problem for the US, which argues that Taiwan and others, such as Israel and Georgia, can't be allowed to hijack US foreign policy, see Wagging the Dog, by Nikolas K. Gvosdev & Travis Tanner in in the Fall 2004 issue of The National Interest (sub req'd unfortunately).

At least now we can return our focus to regulating our financial markets as national markets, within global markets. Consumer protection is a great thing, and the federal regulators fell asleep at the switch. But the answer is not to have fifty states competing for litigation awards, or to revive fifty Blue Sky laws, and then extend them to every other part of the financial services industry.

Hope the next NYAG won't have quite such grandiose political ambitions as our lad Eliot.

Well this should bring a sigh of relief to Matthew Yglesias, who's been fretting ever since Nov 3 about the hard-to-explain boost of Bush support from Latino voters.

NBC Makes Unprecedented Downward Correction in Latino Support for Bush

18-point Margin of Victory for Democrat Kerry Among Hispanics Doubles Previous NBC Estimates; Numbers Affirm WCVI Criticism of National Exit Poll Figures

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- In a stunning admission, an elections manager for NBC News said national news organizations overestimated President George W. Bush's support among Latino voters, downwardly revising its estimated support for President Bush to 40 percent from 44 percent among Hispanics, and increasing challenger John Kerry's support among Hispanics to 58 percent from 53 percent. The revision doubles Kerry's margin of victory among Hispanic voters from 9 to 18 percent. Ana Maria Arumi, the NBC elections manager also revised NBC's estimate for Hispanic support for Bush in Texas, revising a reported 18-point lead for Bush to a 2-point win for Kerry among Hispanics, a remarkable 20-point turnaround from figures reported on election night. [...]

The more information comes out about the exit polls, when they were right and where they were wrong, and actual voting behavior (to say nothing of actual counting of ballots), it looks like we should hold off on any more "revise Democratic strategy" sessions until at least January, when more reliable data can be assembled and analyzed with some degree of confidence.

Donkey Rising has more here and here on the ongoing revision of Hispanic numbers, and here on the declining Bush margin as the raw vote totals are finalized state-by-state.

Ukraine's Supreme Court has invalidated the results of the second round and ruled in favor of a rerun of the second round of voting, to be completed by Dec 26.

This puts at least one nail into Kuchma's attempt to rerun the entire election, with a new candidate to replace Yanukovych. That was the scheme for which he got Putin's blessing when he rushed off to Moscow yesterday.

Now we'll see what else Kuchma has up his sleeve.

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[UPDATE] A lovely piece of FT snark:

The European parliament usually has difficulty organising a roll call, so how to explain the mass appearance of hundreds of orange scarves as MEPs debated the crisis in Ukraine on Thursday?

Step forward Jacek Saryusz-Wolski and his fellow members of the centre-right Civic Platform from Poland.

The MEP sent an assistant out to find 1,000 scarves and paid for half of them himself, the rest coming from a whip-round of colleagues.

Nevertheless, Observer hears some of the more couture-conscious MEPs went out to buy their own, designer, brands.

A great deal of rumors have flown in the past few days about special forces being brought in -- maybe including two planes of Russians flying into a base near Kyiv, maybe not -- and readied for taking on the crowds Monday night after negotiations broke off again. Here's the most credible eye-witness account, published in Kommersant (major Moscow newspaper) on Tuesday, translated on Neeka's Backlog, one of the Ukrainian bloggers.

More news and views from Ukraine and bloggers following the action.

News: Looks like a first-step compromise has been reached that could result in a new run-off by mid-December, if Yuschenko has his way. But lots of legal twists and turns, to say nothing of behind the scenes maneuvering by Kuchma, still to come.

Today's events include:

• Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament turned out Yanukovych's government in a vote of no-confidence. Kuchma could veto parliament's move, which then would require a 2/3 vote, rather than the thin margin obtained today. He has indicated, however, he will accept the vote, and so has 60 days to install a new government. That is, of course, assuming he's still President, since his term has just expired.
• Some analysts have assumed Kuchma is likely to name parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn to head a caretaker government. Other analysts have opined that Kuchma would turn to the former head of the National Bank and head of Yanukovych's election campaign, Serhiy Tyhypko, who only gave up those posts this weekend.
• There's a general agreement that in some fashion or another there will be more voting. There are, however, several scenarios possible, and the Ukrainian Supreme Court's treatment of the cases before it (which may or may not include Yanukovych's last moment filing of complaints of fraud as well) may determine which scenario is implemented.
• The candidates and Kuchma have agreed that, prior to whatever voting next takes place, Parliament will adopt a set of reforms to the voting process, about which there seems to be a fairly wide consensus.
• All parties are stressing the importance of Ukrainian territorial integrity. Although regional barons in the east have backed off threats to split away, there is apparently a planned referendum in the Donbass region for early January to consider greater autonomy within a federation. That's a development to be watched closely.
• Yuschenko agreed that his supporters would call off their blockade of government offices, but has not withdrawn them from the streets entirely.
• AP is the only wire service so far with fairly full reports of Yushchenko's comments to the crowd after the talks. He indicated a revote of the second round could be set for as early as Dec 19.

  "Our ranks mustn't shrink," Yushchenko told tens of thousands of his supporters who gathered on Kiev's central Independence Square for the 11th straight night since the election commission declared his rival the winner in a vote he says was stolen. "We mustn't leave until we have a revote date firmly set."
  
  Hours after the deal was signed, throngs of Yushchenko's supporters continued to besiege the Cabinet and the presidential administration buildings, while thousands clad in his orange campaign colors crammed the central square under fireworks and listened to rock bands in a raucous celebration.
  
  Yushchenko said he expected the Supreme Court to deliver a ruling Thursday on his campaign's appeal to invalidate the runoff result — based on claims of widespread violations across Yanukovych's eastern and southern strongholds.

• The compromise was reached with the mediation of international representatives -- not only the European group (EU's Solana, plus the Presidents of Poland and Lithuania and the Secy Gen of the OSCE) but also, according to Interfax, Russian Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov, who arrived in Kyiv along with Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, Victor Chernmyrdin. Solana had delayed a scheduled trip to Moscow to participate in the talks, and would be discussing Ukraine in Moscow on Thursday. He has repeatedly emphasized that the situation should not affect EU-Russian relations.

Clearly, the devil's in the details, and many Yuschenko supporters fear he may have compromised too much, as reflected in entries in Foreign Notes and Le Sabot Postmoderne.

Moscow Times has a front page article on Kuchma's likely next moves -- first and foremost to ditch Yanukovych it seems. Kuchma has been pressing for a full rerun of the election, starting with the first round. A full re-run, which has been rejected by Yuschenko, would allow Kuchma and his allies to substitute another candidate for Yahukovych, and delay the process as well. By March, probably the earliest a full new election could be organized, Yuschenko's orange crowds will be off the street. Peter Lavalle's analysis, described in our earlier post, is well worth reviewing in this context. He seems to have got it spot on.

Another serious concern arguing for calming things down and getting the crowds off the streets -- apparently shared by all sides -- is the economic impact of the ongoing work stoppages. Also, there are ongoing worries about the financial system and the country's exchange rate. Authorities have said they have plenty of reserves. But as for the local banks, Moscow Times reports:

Ukrainians across the country continued a run on banks, fearing that a financial crisis will follow the political crisis. Dozens of depositors crowded outside Kiev banks hoping to withdraw their savings. The panic has been fueled by a Central Bank order limiting depositors to $1,000.

Views: Lots of first-rate reporting and analysis around the blogosphere. Crooked Timber (John Quiggin) and Fist Full of Euros publish another lengthy eyewitness report from Tarik Amar. Le Sabot Postmoderne has first-hand accounts and some great photos, including the fireworks shown above, taken in Kyiv as the crowd celebrated the Rada's no-confidence vote for Yanukovych's government.

For further discussion of the complex ways the electorate may split in the Ukraine, see Notes From Kiev and Orange Ukraine. Orange Ukraine has two interesting posts covering both the Ukrainian and Russian angles, first re Yuschenko and then re Yanukovych.

Another very interesting discussion of the Russian angle is at Fist Full of Euros, where Tobias Schwartz looks at Russia and the broader issues of the CIS with a longer-term perspective.

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[Further views 12:45AM EST 12-2-04] Via Le Sabot Postmoderne, who writes: "Proof that cretinism knows no ideology -- an attack on the democracy movement from an elitist Tory-conservative perspective!"

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Photos: Fireworks celebrating the downfall of Yanukovych in parliament, Le Sabot Postmoderne, Dec 1 2004.
Parliamentary deputies celebrating the non-confidence vote, Gleb Garanich, Reuters, Dec 1 2004.

[UPDATE 9:50PM EST 12-1-04] So sorry, lost track around No. 7 and forgot to add No. 9. The Kurds have decided to get together and field their own slate. Massud Barzani (Kurdistan Democratic Party) and Jalal Talabani (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) held a joint press conference to announce they would be fielding a joint list, not only for the national elections but for the regional parliament to be elected the same day.

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Just when you thought you knew who was taking what positions on the preparation for elections -- or even whether or when to hold them:

1. As of yesterday, a group of 38 Shiite political parties, the Shiite Political Council, have withdrawn from discussing a unified slate with Al Sistani's representatives, on the grounds the candidate list being proposed would be dominated by religious extremists.

"We don't want to be an extension of Iran inside Iraq," said Hussein al-Mousawi, spokesman for the Shiite Political Council. "We found out that the top 10 names in the list are extremist Shiite Islamists who believe in the rule of religious clerics."

The Shiite Political Council includes Chalibi's Iraqi National Congress as well as Hezbollah, neither exactly at the top of the Iranian enemies list. The group intends to appeal to Sistani,

"...because we believe that the ayatollah is looking for an assembly that represents all Iraqis and is not dominated by extremists," [al-Mousawi] added.

[ed. update -- since this is the second time in two days I've seen reference to Sistani as hooked up with radicals or extremists, and had never heard that before, my tin foil would normally be starting to flutter a bit; however, this reference is linked with Chalibi, and the other is quite anti-Chalibi, so if there's a discrediting campaign, it may be coming from somewhere else]

2. Making no reference at all to the purported defection of the Shiite Political Council, the nuclear scientist heading up Sistani's 6-man candidate list selection committee, Hussain al-Shahristani, has said they're close to agreement on a unified list of candidates.

Leading Shi'ite groups, including the two main Shi'ite political parties -- Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq -- as well as the movement led by radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, are in talks on joining together on a single slate to ensure the Shi'ite vote is not split.

[al-Shahristani] said the list would not be exclusively Shi'ite but would also include representatives of other groups.

"It will be a national list, with representatives from a wide variety of communities, not just the Shia," Shahristani, a former nuclear scientist who was jailed under Saddam, told Reuters. "We hope the list will be acceptable to the majority of Iraqis, not just the Shi'ite community."

3. Several days ago, the losing Sunni candidate for Iraqi President, Adnan Pachachi, led the group of Sunni parties calling for a delay in national elections. Now the winning Sunni candidate, President Ghazi al-Yawar, is rejecting the calls for delay.

We must go ahead with elections, from a legal and a moral point of view," Yawar told a news conference in Baghdad.

Iraq's interim constitution, endorsed by the United Nations, says elections must be held by the end of January to select a transitional assembly which will pick a new cabinet and oversee the drafting of a permanent constitution.

"These elections have been planned for eight months," Yawar said. "It's my personal view they should go ahead on time."

4. Allawi was in Jordan, getting backing for January elections, and trying to cast doubt that other Sunni countries support the Iraqi Sunni calls for delays.    more »