That opinion piece last Thursday was right on target:
The latest context for doubt is the Iraqi parliamentary elections, which will take place this weekend. The naysayers have already declared the poll illegitimate, since most of the Sunnis "who count" will very likely not participate. Some have taken the trouble of forecasting percentages, and it seems that the thing to watch will be whether the 50 percentage participation threshold is reached, and indeed crossed.
That may be a case of missing the forest for the trees. Given the appalling level of safety in Iraq (which will help supporters of the process explain why involvement was not higher) and the fact that Shiites and Kurds, who together form a clear majority, openly favor elections, parliamentary legitimacy may be virtually ensured. Indeed, attacks by insurgents may make the voting more authentic than peaceful balloting would, since there is nothing like reams of blood to consecrate an effort.