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Re: Re: Lebanon writ large - time to learn some lessons!
by
nadezhda
I'm going to be sounding like Ken White and Irving -- let's not forget that the US military aren't idiots. They knew full well that giving a month-plus warning they were coming was going to mean not rounding up all the bad guys. Or even a majority of them.
They had to give the warnings due to the civilian situation. Basically, anybody still around once the offensive was launched was there at their own risk. A certain amount of resistance was to be expected from the Fallujans, and maybe even the Zaqarwi-types. But it was basically up to the bad guys to decide how much of a fight they wanted to make. One very clear option they had was to launch counter-offensives elsewhere, as they have done.
Where would those counter-offensives be launched? How many? How intense -- hit and run or take territory? There's where intelligence weakness is probably a large problem, combined with informants on the inside of especially the police. But the generals and the colonels and the Lt colonels and down the line are not idiots. Without even reading any comments from them, I agree with Ken and Irving that the breathless reporting that's been suggesting various surprises for the US at the overall strategic level, etc. -- like rushing troops in from the border -- is simply incompetent by journalists who are clueless.
As for the timing, I agree that Alawi needed to have made the attempt before Cairo. Otherwise, how would he be able to discuss election timing, the various options for partial elections, what type of international assistance he needs for different scenarios -- unless he demonstrated that the Sunni triangle is off limits right now. Remember the brouhaha that flared when Alawi and Rumsfeld noted that January elections might have to be held in only a portion of Iraqi territory? Would have thought that by stating the self-evident they had exposed the tip of a grand conspiracy to undermine democracy. Talk about reality-based.... Sheesh!
The problem has now been adequately demonstrated, I hope to everyone's full satisfaction in Cairo. And this time, without being able to pin the "cause" of the political dilemmas exclusively on resistance to the American occupation and widespread Iraqi aversion to excessive levels of force vis a vis civilians.
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