Stop and rest awhile as the caravan moves on
And then we have the recurrent self-fulfilling prophecy problem
by nadezhda
If you're convinced that Iran will never truly comply with anything the EU cooks up, so you refuse to have anything to do with either getting to a deal or putting some sort of imprimatur on it, then just maybe there's no way that the Iranians and the EU can get a deal that will hold up thru various trials and tribulations. Not even clear the EU will be able to deliver on promises of nuclear technology assistance without at least a tacit go-ahead from the US to European industry. That, at least, is the opinion of some of the arms inspector/controllers and diplomats in the nuclear proliferation area.
A European deal aimed at freezing Iran's nuclear fuel program in exchange for peaceful atomic technology and other incentives will never work if Washington is not directly involved, diplomats and an analyst said on Monday. [...] Albright said another problem was the EU offer of nuclear technology. In the original offer, the EU trio pledged to sell Tehran a light-water reactor, which is considered to be less useful for covert weapons activity than heavy-water reactors. Several Western diplomats familiar with the EU-Iran talks, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they believed firms in France, Britain and Germany would never agree to sell nuclear technology to Iran with the United States opposing it. "The only ones to provide this (light-water reactor) would be the French or Germans. Government officials went to German companies and asked if they would sell Iran this technology and they said no, because their U.S. business is too valuable for them. The same with the French," said the diplomat. [...]
Why doesn't somebody teach these folks game theory, where acting on the worst-case assumption often pushes the opponent precisely in the direction of the outcome you're worried about. Bring back GHWB, Jimmy and Brent, please, quickly.
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