(orignally posted on my tacitus diary entry) The reason I said it didn't necessarily follow is that this isn't anything particularly new for the Iraqis; in many ways it's a reversion to a tribal system in which a weak central authority is forced to cut deals with local leaders in order to keep order. Even Saddam had to work this way in many cases; he respected the power of Sheikhs so much that if he had to kill a few members of a troublesome tribe, he would attempt to wipe them out because he knew they'd be gunning for him. So he cut deals wherever it made more sense to do so than it did to kill. What this new pragmatism represents, I think, is a small chance to find partners in some capacity that will quell the violence and allow reconstruction and possibly elections to take place. The punctuated equilibrium metaphor only makes sense if this is in fact a new step on the way to somewhere better. If it is simply a return to the status quo ante or progress doesn't follow, the metaphor fails, no?