I see you selected from the menu Mssr. Praktike. Would you care for some coffee, or should I just bring the check?

I swear I didn't see this one over at Legal Information Awareness before I posted this one ... got it straight from the Australian hissel. But I did link to your other fine, fine post. Haven't read #2 quite yet.

That makes it even funnier then. You were able to pick from the menu without even reading it. Guess you know this restaurant well.

Take your time with # 2. They are longish as usual. Shorter Me: maybe disengagement could work under the right circumstances, especially given the fact that the current trajectory ain't all that pretty.

In some ways, I am changing a little from my prior rigid stay the course instincts. It's hard to get a read on the situation, so I am open to input from people in the know. Anything that improves the prospects for Iraqis. Abandoning them is not an option though.

I don't really have a sense of whether Luttwak is right or not -- it seems like wishful thinking, frankly -- but the fact that Allawi is now on board calling for a U.S. pullout, albeit one with no specific date attached, suggests that the idea has some political currency in the country. What I think would happen if we left too soon is that you would see the Badr Brigade step in as a security force, and then, boom, full-blown civil war and all of the bad things associated with that. I'm also watching the Kirkuk situation with alarm. On the positive side of the ledger, the fact that one side is accusing the other of being neo-Ba'athists and the other side is saying that the UIA is taking their orders from Iran suggests that there's a sensible middle that likes neither. We'll see, I guess. I think there could be a kind of withdrawal from some areas but not others.

Now to read your second post.

I think some of Luttwak is definitely wishful thinking. His suggestion as to the level of assistance and non-interference from the neighboring countries is just not likely in my book.

At this point though, it is a question of odds and probabilities:

What are the odds that the present course will achieve its goals vs. the odds that some form of negotiated, deliberative withdrawal could inspire more cooperation and stability.

Neither is a comfortable bet.