Phil Carter says:

I've listened to the arguments of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and Gen. Abizaid to try and find a good way to hold partial elections without undermining the long-term stability of Iraq. I've also read about how a coalition of Iraqi political parties may coalesce in the election to provide a "super-majority", thus bolstering its legitimacy. And yet, I remain unconvinced that this is a good idea. It's one thing to strive for full and fair elections, but to miss the mark due to the exigencies of the moment. It's quite another to set the bar so low at the outset, accepting imperfect elections as a matter of policy. I think this move, along with the disbanding of the Iraqi army and the de-Baathification of the Iraqi government agencies, will go down as one of the great strategic blunders of our occupation if we continue down this road.

Harvard President and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has a famous quote: "In the history of the world, no one has ever washed a rented car." The quip is meant to make a point about ownership and stakeholding, and how people generally invest their resources in things they own. The same is true, in a sense, of Iraq. We must get as many Iraqis as possible to invest in the future of their nation, either by service in the security forces, by joining the Iraqi economy, or by participating in the democratic process. As these Iraqis gradually invest themselves in Iraqi civil society, they will take ownership of it, and resist any insurgency that seeks to tear apart their society. Over time, that is the formula for long-term stability in Iraq. Free and fair elections which are secured so that 100% of the country may participate are an important milestone on the way to this civil society.

I'm left wondering: who are the people in the U.S. government that prefer deeply flawed elections to fully free and fair ones? Whoever they are, they ought to be fired. I've always assumed that we were in fact striving for that 100%, but that it was simply impossible to achieve by January, and getting more difficult by the day. I'm seduced by the argument that flawed elections will be seen as illegitimate, backfire and lead to civil war, but I think it may be more important that the United States attempt to keep its word and proceed as promised. It's also important to remember that the Islamists component of the insurgency probably views manmade laws as inherently illegitmate anyway, given that Allah gave us all the rules we need.

Phil seems to think that this coalition of parties--which as Matt Yglesias pointed out somewhere is remarkably similar to the current setup as well as the old Governing Council--is U.S. policy. If so, it's a terrible and remarkably undemocratic idea, though again, it might be Boss Tweed Rules in effect. Inveterate Sistani-watcher Swopa is correct when he intimates that Sistani is likely to balk and put the whole occupation in jeopardy. One wonders whether Negroponte has decided that the elections aren't going to be viable and is therefore just putting on a happy face for the folks back home.

One more point. I see little reason to believe that these elections will represent any kind of earthquake in the Arab world, if they are seen as a sham. After all, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria all have elections and have for some time. They're either fake or meaningless. Now, if the goal is actually to put pressure on the Saudi government by putting a bee in the bonnet of the oppressed Saudi Shi'ite minority, then maybe some good will result anyway. I'd feel better about our this idea if I saw any evidence beyond the ravings of Perle and Frum that it is part of some kind of grand design for the region.

President Musarraf has been making the tour of Rome, ending his visit Thursday with a meeting with the Pope. High on his list of themes, both at the UN in NY last week and in Rome, is discouraging the development of what he called an "iron curtain" between Islam and the West.

While he's at it, he had time to agree with Italy's President, Carlo Ciampi, that the two countries are opposed to an enlargement in the permanent membership of the UN Security Council. Their opposition was, of course, couched in the most noble of sentiments:

Pakistan and Italy has agreed to block the expansion of permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to ensure equality of nations in the world body.

Issuing joint press statement with the Italian President in Rome Tuesday after one on one meeting, the President said Pakistan and Italy are in total consonance on the issue of expansion of UN Security Council.

He said we would be against any attempt to violate the basic tenets of democratic norms of certain equality of nations and oppose any increase of nations in the UN Security Council having special privilege of being more equal than others.

The Italian President Carlo Ciampi speaking on the occasion said Pakistan and Italy both envisage a role that could enable the United Nations to more effective performance in its charter and respond to any threat to the security and the problems to any development.

The two countries are mobilizing against the four-country bid of Germany, Japan, Brazil and India which was launched last week in NY. Needless to say, Italy is opposed to Germany joining Britain and France without Italy being represented, and Pakistan is mortally opposed to India's bid.

One of the goals of chez Nadezhda is to create a place where people can share ideas or things they're writing without being limited to just reacting to things another blogger publishes, but also without having to make the sort of time commitment required to run their own blog.

We're especially interested in having people share from their own experiences -- work, travel, living. And other media besides articles are especially encouraged -- photos, diaries, art, music, movies.

Another goal is to make this a place where folks can come who are looking for some good resources -- background materials, links to helpful sites, book reviews, and so forth. We'd also like to know about interesting events -- cultural, political, academic conferences, think tank panel discussions, etc.

If you're interested in contributing, please contact me at cheznad [hyphen] info at yahoo dot com.

The word is that tomorrow MLB will hold a press conference to announce the Expos are moving to Washington. National League baseball in DC! Maybe I'll even have a chance to see the Barry before he hangs it up.   more »

Warlords to help ensure safe Afghan elections:

Afghanistan is looking for help from warlords and other local leaders as well as foreign forces and its own army to ensure security for landmark Oct. 9 elections, a U.N. official said on Tuesday.

Well that's one way to do it. I think what we're really talking about here in Afghanistan is going to be "power-sharing," not democracy per se.

As long as it leads to a modus vivendi that allows reconstruction to continue, minimizes violence, and marginalizes the Taliban, I suppose it's the best we can hope for.

A pervasive element of daily life in Egypt is the baksheesh or bribe. As a tourist, almost everywhere you go you are hit up for money. Upon entering a cultural site, an amateur tour guide usually sweeps in to offer his services, after which a tip is expected. And simply getting from point A to point B in a taxi involves haggling over prices, and even then you aren't guaranteed that your driver won't try to jerk you around.

According to Egyptians expatriates I've spoken with, this aspect of Egyptian society extends to the workplace as well; in order to get ahead or get things done, one has to know who to pay off when. Mere talent and hard work are no guarantees of earthly rewards, a frustrating situation for those who just want to make an honest living. In America, we have laws but more importantly a culture that inveighs strongly against corrupt behavior, and for the most part punishes it when it is exposed (although we're no Finland!)

I gather that this "baksheesh culture" is an aspect of developing societies around the world. Data from Transparency International suggests that corruption among public officials and low GDP per capita go together. What I wonder is, which is the chicken and which is the egg? Can a country, by embarking on a program of reform like that mentioned here, break out of the grip of poverty? How important a factor is reduced corruption in increased growth? Or does economic competition somehow tend to make corruption less viable?

"The day that it is able to absorb and digest satire without death threats and burning effigies I will be satisfied that the Muslim world has undergone the much-needed reform that I am always talking about."

Read all about how this may already be in the works here.

Just wondering.

I noticed that the tourist attractions in Coptic Cairo--which include several Coptic churches, the Coptic Museum, the Ben Ezra Synagogue, and the remains of some Rome fortifications--were being renovated in part with funds from USAID, whereas the reconstruction of mosques and Ottoman houses of Islamic Cairo was assisted by funds from the European Union. Indeed, as I mentioned below, Al Azhar Mosque's muezzin gave America the thumbs down because he said we didn't contribute to the rebuilding of the district after the 1992 earthquake. Granted, the US has given over 25 billions dollars in aid to the Egyptian government, but this seems like a missed opportunity.

UPDATE [9/28/04/ 12:40 PM] by praktike: I should add that Coptic Christians do face persecution in Egypt, as documented here. I had tea, briefly, at the home of an elderly Coptic couple whose arms were tattoed with their date of birth and the Coptic cross. I still haven't figured out if this is some sort of government policy, but it is clear that there is a great deal of discrimation against them. About 1.5 million Egyptian Copts now live in the United States.

We Americans tend to overestimate, I think, the extent to which Islam permeates daily life in the Arab world.

While one can hear the call to prayer ("Allahu ... Akhbar") repeated loudly from most quarters of Cairo at the appropriate times, only true believers appear to actually perform their Islamic duty with regularity. While it was common to see a fewmen praying on carpets outside the smaller, newer mosques in commercial areas (they're kind of like convenience stores for religion), only on Friday did I see any mosques filled anywhere near to capacity.

Nonetheless, a very large percentage of men in Cairo do have a dark, raised spot on their forehead indicating a lifetime devoted to prayer. I think most people must pray privately, or not at all.