His post immediately after the release of the OBL tape was a terrific piece. He covered one of several reactions I had when I heard about the tape. As I've been covering at chez Nadezhda, if the election goes the way the polls have moved every time we've had an elevated terror alert, OBL had just handed the election to Bush unless the Dem's GOTV is extraordinary. The fear factor has been dominating the very volatile "swing" or "undecided" margin.
Now Billmon comes back today with a Fox poll which has the race tied among "likely" and Kerry up 2 among registered. Seems OBL didn't help Kery any, but hasn't yet helped Bush reverse Kerry's momentum. As Billmon says:
If Gorman [Fox's pollster] is right, than I think I can sincerely say I have never been so happy to be wrong.
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