Do you like reading about energy?

Joe Katzman at WindsofChange, who I suspect is probably one of only a handful of people that is equally comfortable switching between Worldchanging and Blackfive, has posted a comprehensive round-up on energy issues. Be sure to catch the ongoing discussion on China's possible futures, too.

I don't always agree with Joe, and I'm not sure I fully agree with this, but I liked his comment in response to an old post of mine about China, Paul Wolfowitz, and certainty:

My take: it would surely be foolish to dismiss the possibility of a neo-fascist China, given the warning signs we can already see. That means the ability to enact a policy of containment if necessary is an important goal, and strategic positions must not be given up lightly (this largely explains why the USA still bothers with South Korea). Until this possibility can be dismissed, relations with China should remain wary and with "Plan B" always in the background.

At the same time, it would also be foolish to assume that this is China's only future. Hence the prospect of engagement over North Korea, economic links like the WTO, and other activities designed to draw China in and hope they'll play. Or even tacks designed to engage the Chinese people, and affect trends in that country. That last bit has to be played carefully, but the stakes are too high to take it off the table.

To an outsider, this will look like the USA is pursuing 2 tracks at once, tracks which are slightly contradictory. That's a correct assessment - and smart policy, too.

Smarter policy still looks at the scenarios, and the forces shaping events, and the kinds of events that could be critical tipping points, without committing to any one scenario. That way, if a possible future begins to come true, it's possible to see the signs early and begin to make appropriate changes quickly.

Thanks to JC for prompting the discussion, and be sure to read WoC regularly.

UPDATE: [1:34 10/27/04] by praktike: Joe reminds me that it was actually the hipster John Atkinson who put the energy roundup together.