A great deal of rumors have flown in the past few days about special forces being brought in -- maybe including two planes of Russians flying into a base near Kyiv, maybe not -- and readied for taking on the crowds Monday night after negotiations broke off again. Here's the most credible eye-witness account, published in Kommersant (major Moscow newspaper) on Tuesday, translated on Neeka's Backlog, one of the Ukrainian bloggers.

More news and views from Ukraine and bloggers following the action.

News: Looks like a first-step compromise has been reached that could result in a new run-off by mid-December, if Yuschenko has his way. But lots of legal twists and turns, to say nothing of behind the scenes maneuvering by Kuchma, still to come.

Today's events include:

• Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament turned out Yanukovych's government in a vote of no-confidence. Kuchma could veto parliament's move, which then would require a 2/3 vote, rather than the thin margin obtained today. He has indicated, however, he will accept the vote, and so has 60 days to install a new government. That is, of course, assuming he's still President, since his term has just expired.
• Some analysts have assumed Kuchma is likely to name parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn to head a caretaker government. Other analysts have opined that Kuchma would turn to the former head of the National Bank and head of Yanukovych's election campaign, Serhiy Tyhypko, who only gave up those posts this weekend.
• There's a general agreement that in some fashion or another there will be more voting. There are, however, several scenarios possible, and the Ukrainian Supreme Court's treatment of the cases before it (which may or may not include Yanukovych's last moment filing of complaints of fraud as well) may determine which scenario is implemented.
• The candidates and Kuchma have agreed that, prior to whatever voting next takes place, Parliament will adopt a set of reforms to the voting process, about which there seems to be a fairly wide consensus.
• All parties are stressing the importance of Ukrainian territorial integrity. Although regional barons in the east have backed off threats to split away, there is apparently a planned referendum in the Donbass region for early January to consider greater autonomy within a federation. That's a development to be watched closely.
• Yuschenko agreed that his supporters would call off their blockade of government offices, but has not withdrawn them from the streets entirely.
• AP is the only wire service so far with fairly full reports of Yushchenko's comments to the crowd after the talks. He indicated a revote of the second round could be set for as early as Dec 19.

  "Our ranks mustn't shrink," Yushchenko told tens of thousands of his supporters who gathered on Kiev's central Independence Square for the 11th straight night since the election commission declared his rival the winner in a vote he says was stolen. "We mustn't leave until we have a revote date firmly set."
  
  Hours after the deal was signed, throngs of Yushchenko's supporters continued to besiege the Cabinet and the presidential administration buildings, while thousands clad in his orange campaign colors crammed the central square under fireworks and listened to rock bands in a raucous celebration.
  
  Yushchenko said he expected the Supreme Court to deliver a ruling Thursday on his campaign's appeal to invalidate the runoff result — based on claims of widespread violations across Yanukovych's eastern and southern strongholds.

• The compromise was reached with the mediation of international representatives -- not only the European group (EU's Solana, plus the Presidents of Poland and Lithuania and the Secy Gen of the OSCE) but also, according to Interfax, Russian Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov, who arrived in Kyiv along with Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, Victor Chernmyrdin. Solana had delayed a scheduled trip to Moscow to participate in the talks, and would be discussing Ukraine in Moscow on Thursday. He has repeatedly emphasized that the situation should not affect EU-Russian relations.

Clearly, the devil's in the details, and many Yuschenko supporters fear he may have compromised too much, as reflected in entries in Foreign Notes and Le Sabot Postmoderne.

Moscow Times has a front page article on Kuchma's likely next moves -- first and foremost to ditch Yanukovych it seems. Kuchma has been pressing for a full rerun of the election, starting with the first round. A full re-run, which has been rejected by Yuschenko, would allow Kuchma and his allies to substitute another candidate for Yahukovych, and delay the process as well. By March, probably the earliest a full new election could be organized, Yuschenko's orange crowds will be off the street. Peter Lavalle's analysis, described in our earlier post, is well worth reviewing in this context. He seems to have got it spot on.

Another serious concern arguing for calming things down and getting the crowds off the streets -- apparently shared by all sides -- is the economic impact of the ongoing work stoppages. Also, there are ongoing worries about the financial system and the country's exchange rate. Authorities have said they have plenty of reserves. But as for the local banks, Moscow Times reports:

Ukrainians across the country continued a run on banks, fearing that a financial crisis will follow the political crisis. Dozens of depositors crowded outside Kiev banks hoping to withdraw their savings. The panic has been fueled by a Central Bank order limiting depositors to $1,000.

Views: Lots of first-rate reporting and analysis around the blogosphere. Crooked Timber (John Quiggin) and Fist Full of Euros publish another lengthy eyewitness report from Tarik Amar. Le Sabot Postmoderne has first-hand accounts and some great photos, including the fireworks shown above, taken in Kyiv as the crowd celebrated the Rada's no-confidence vote for Yanukovych's government.

For further discussion of the complex ways the electorate may split in the Ukraine, see Notes From Kiev and Orange Ukraine. Orange Ukraine has two interesting posts covering both the Ukrainian and Russian angles, first re Yuschenko and then re Yanukovych.

Another very interesting discussion of the Russian angle is at Fist Full of Euros, where Tobias Schwartz looks at Russia and the broader issues of the CIS with a longer-term perspective.

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[Further views 12:45AM EST 12-2-04] Via Le Sabot Postmoderne, who writes: "Proof that cretinism knows no ideology -- an attack on the democracy movement from an elitist Tory-conservative perspective!"

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Photos: Fireworks celebrating the downfall of Yanukovych in parliament, Le Sabot Postmoderne, Dec 1 2004.
Parliamentary deputies celebrating the non-confidence vote, Gleb Garanich, Reuters, Dec 1 2004.

News: Le Sabot Postmoderne does a round-up of today's developments, which involved a lot of to-and-fro of different quasi-offers, rejected out of hand by Yushchenko:

Yushchenko has broken off negotiations with Kuchma and Yanukovych. Their position was, "Make a deal based on an unenforceable promise that we'll make you a strong Prime Minister under President Yanukovych, and then disperse the protesters." Thankfully, Yushchenko was born in the morning, but not THIS morning.

Kuchma/Yanukovych's other bargaining position is to call for entirely new elections. They've made noises that both Yanukovych and Yushchenko wouldn't be allowed to run, but instead new candidates would be fielded. This would conveniently let them dump their currently radioactive Donetsk thug, while robbing the Opposition of their wildly popular candidate. You can start to see why Yushchenko stopped negotiating.

Other news of the day:

• The Supreme Court continued to hear the voting fraud cases for a second day.
  
• Javier Solana and Polish President Aleksandr Kwasniewski will be meeting with the rival candidates on Wednesday, together with OSCE Secy Gen Jan Kubis.
  
• Fears of a geographic splintering of Ukraine eased with some backing down by local officials who had spoken of autonomy moves in some eastern regions.
  
• Some analysts see the new elections/delay scenarios fitting Kuchma's agenda -- put off relinquishing power as long as possible but get rid of Yanukovych as prime minister in the meantime.

New source to check out if you want to follow development closely, in addition to previous links: HotLine news service, frequent updates that seem to track closely with eventual international wire service reports (Russian, Ukrainian, English)

Views: Two very interesting pieces, giving a broader set of perspectives and agendas than can be found in most coverage. It's not just about democracy, fair elections and rule of law, it's not just about people power, it's not just about east-west history of the Ukraine, or oligarchs and economic interests, or Russia vs the West. It's all of the above and then some.

First, from the blog The Russian Dilettante, on how an ordinary voter in Donetsk might view the goings on. Shorter: There's a compelling logic to "Sure they're thugs and thieves, but they're our thugs and thieves."

It's amazing that the border between Yuschenko- and Yanukovich-supporting regions can be traced to the politics and demographics of the 17th and 18th century and the first half of the 19th. I've tried to reconstruct -- speculatively -- a Donesk voter's point of view:

1. Our region and its neighbors produce most of this nation's GDP -- let's just say wealth. Granted, our oligarchs syphon off most of this wealth but some trickles down to us, too.
2. The good people in the streets of Kiev want to break the oligarchs' monopoly on power. We wouldn't mind that, too. But we don't trust their leaders.
3. Their leaders are oligarchs from other parts of Ukraine who aren't satisfied with what they've got. When they grab assets from our local oligarchs, we'll be even worse off.
4. Also, when those new oligarchs from the West come to power, they'll spend the tax money -- and most of that comes from us -- on their cronies.
5. They'll try to Halycize Ukraine; we Easterners will become second-class citizens. Our kids will have a problem getting into Kyiv universities.
6. So you see, it's not about democracy, it's just us against them.
7. We'd rather become autonomous and deal with our oligarchs ourselves.

From this angle, there's no argument over values; it's Us vs Them. (Alas, I'm not quite impartial to this simple dichotomy, either.) The best I can say now is that I am hoping Ukraine becomes a federation, which would reflect its geographically-distributed cultural diversity. Let the people of the East take on their oligarchs without fear that outsiders will step in to grab the spoils.

For daily analysis that's both indepth and big-picture, covering things both Russian and Ukrainian, Untimely Thoughts by Peter Lavalle is a must-read. He writes on Russia for a variety of news organizations, especially UPI and papers like Moscow Times. His website his articles as well as analytical pieces, interviews, and occasional items from other analysts. With the intense coverage of Ukraine recently, his UPI stuff has been daily. Today's article outlines the possible gamble Kuchma may be taking with a call for further elections, and how it could play out on a number of levels:

[...]
Depending on the Supreme Court's findings, a third round of voting appears likely. But how the third round is characterized will be key. Will the court find the runoff vote invalid, or the will it go further and deem both rounds invalid? Kuchma and his supporters are angling for the latter.

The voiding of both rounds opens the door for Kuchma to finally rid of himself of Yanukovych as prime minister. Kuchma might have intended to fire Yanukovych this week, but Timoshenko's demand that he do so might have interrupted his plans. Kuchma has been given an ultimatum before by political foes while president and did not back down.

With a third vote on the horizon, Kuchma is looking for a suitable candidate to replace Yanukovych. That person appears to be Serhiy Tyhypko. Resigning from his position as head of the National Bank and Yanukovych's campaign manager, Tyhipko is a perfectly placed regime insider who would very much like to take on Yushchenko. Yushchenko dearly would like to run against Yanukovych again, but will have no choice if Yanukovych backs out - something Kuchma can easily arrange.

A Tyhypko candidacy could be very interesting. He is an insider, but can easily spin himself as a centrist, opposed to Yanukovych's separatist leanings and Yushchenko-Timoshenko's "right-wing, nationalist, and street-extremism." Tyhypko could spin himself as a unifier - politically and as an advocate if an indivisible Ukraine.

Additionally, if the Supreme Court suggests another election and legislation is passed toward this end, Kuchma could declare a state of emergency in the name of allowing a "cooling off" period before the extraordinary third round is set. "Cooling off" in this case would mean the end of street demonstrations.

Should this scenario worry Yushchenko? Yes. Yushchenko's coalition of political forces are not as cohesive as most media report. As the last few days have demonstrated, the much more nationalistic Timoshenko often acts an independent political actor beyond Yushchenko's control. Timoshenko and her supporters have polarized Ukraine's political atmosphere just as much as Yanukovych unofficial support of regional separatism.

The international angle of a third election round would also be important. Vladimir Putin would have the opportunity to disentangle himself from the Kremlin's over-zealous support of Yanukovych's candidacy. The West would be forced to distance itself from outward support of Yushchenko.
[...]

As discoshaman of Le Sabot Postmoderne puts it so aptly:

We all agree that the strategic picture here is almost impossible to grasp in its entirety. There are so many unknowable variables, and so many individual agendas coalescing and falling apart simultaneously. It's somewhere in a gray area between complex and chaotic.

[UPDATE 12:30PM EST 11-29-04] Potentially, some very good news. Kuchma has proposed new elections. From Reuters:

Outgoing Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, facing mass protests over a disputed presidential election, Monday called for a new poll to help end the crisis tearing the nation apart.

If we really want to preserve peace and consensus and build this just democratic society, of which we speak so much but have failed to carry out in a legal way, let us have new elections," Kuchma said in a statement.

Kuchma, in power for 10 scandal-tainted years and widely accused of mismanaging the economy, said he had no intention of running in a new poll.

He spoke as the Supreme Court sat to try to resolve the election stalemate, though a decision could take days.
[...]

Another positive sign is reports that some of the Ukrainian "oligarchs" may be switching sides, or at least backing off their support of Yanukovych. The English language Kyiv Post is generally viewed as reliable. The internet activist site, Maidan, has a mix of rumor and reliable reports. Volunteer translators are apparently working non-stop to provide English-language versions of as much as they can. Worth visiting simply as a remarkable example of "citizen internet."

Dan Drezner has a good analytical roundup from early this morning, when he was not feeling very upbeat.

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Want a feel for "as it happens" -- check out Le Sabot Post-Moderne, a passionate Western partisan for Yuschenko's "people power" movement. Lots of photos connected with blow-by-blow what's going on with negotiations, rallies, etc. Although he admits he's so close to the on-the-ground action that it's hard to keep sight of the broader strategic goings-on.

Nonetheless, he has very interesting explanations about how the election was stolen and the Orange movement, not only in Kiev (or Kyiv if you spend more time with Ukrainians than Russians). Especially helpful is the correction, echoed by other bloggers, of the distorting East vs West narrative being imposed by outside commentators. [Map: The Economist, Nov 25 2004 "Europe's New Divisions"] This post from Le Sabot Moderne Saturday rips apart the Guardian. It starts:

Jonathan Steele's hit piece in the Guardian is a sad example of the condescension that so many hold for Ukraine. He insists on spinning this as a West-Russia dispute, as if the Ukrainians themselves have nothing to do with it. If he'd troubled himself to talk to some actual Ukrainians, he'd know that they're viewing this as a fight against a Mafia-esque ruling class which is using its powers to repress dissent, monopolize political power and cannibalize the nation's infrastructure through corrupt "privatization" schemes.

These oligarchs sound like just the sort of people a nice Lefty like Steele would be against. But I guess it's just more fun to poke a stick at the United States.

In an incredibly Orwellian moment, he dings the US for "provocatively" financing exit polls. Let's get this straight, the oligarch government was financing rigged polls to help justify their theft of the election. Yet it's the WEST who is trying to use exit polls to perform a coup? What a jackal.
[...]

Another blogger from Kyiv, Tulipgirl has a rich collection of Ukrainian activist details as well as a good variety of other links to blogs, sites and photo collections. Especially recommended is a just-created "blog of the revolution," Orange Ukraine, by a former Peace Corps volunteer who lives in Kyiv with his Ukrainian-born wife.

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[UPDATE 8:30PM EST 11-28-04] For those of you who just can't get enough Ukraine. A lengthy background piece -- giving a good deal more on who's who and the various events leading up to the current situation -- can be found on John Quiggin's personal blog, via Dan Hardie, by Tarik Amar, "who, Dan says, is doing a PhD on Soviet history and speaks Ukranian, German and Russian, among other languages, and knows the place very well."

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Other bloggers following developments closely are Fist Full of Euros and Daniel Drezner, who has a running news roundup. Drezner catches this interesting bit from the Kyiv Post:

Roman Olearchyk's analysis in the Kyiv Post suggests that elites in the eastern parts of the country would take steps beyond autonomy to protect their interests:

The business tycoons in eastern Ukraine that supported Yanukovych appear to be taking extreme measures to protect their interests, which include lucrative assets in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkiv and Luhansk. Government officials and legislators in these oblasts have in the past two days demanded the formation of an autonomous eastern-southern Ukrainian republic and are threatening to split their oblasts away from Ukraine altogether.
[...]

Similar story in MosNews.com [Map: MosNews.com, Nov 26 2004 "Pro-Russian Eastern Ukraine Threatens to Secede if Yushchenko Wins"].

And in further apparent confirmation, this just in from AFP: Yuschenko calls for prosecuting "separatist governors," while Yanukovych is off with Moscow's Mayor, Yury Luzhkov, visiting the Russian-speaking regions. "After a short meeting [in Lugansk] they were due to head to Severodonetsk to attend a meeting of 3,500 local officials from 17 regions that was expected to discuss holding a referendum on autonomy."   more »

Maybe it's not such a bad idea after all that the next Secretary of State is an old Kremlinoligist. November has been an active month for Russia-watching, some good news, some not so good news.

Main areas of interest in this clippings collection:

1. A second term for President Bush -- views from Moscow
2. Black Gold - Russia has more... and then some
3. The evolving structure of Russia's political economy, and the dilemma of low growth and investment outside the energy sector
4. The CIS and the Near-Abroad -- Russia's posture in its sphere of influence, and the West's responses
5. NATO -- areas of collaboration and friction
6. Nuclear weapons and treaties
7. Chechnya

   more »

I'm really not sure what I think yet. I'm interested
mostly in the regional governors move rather than the political party move.
The politician class has been totally unable to develop representative
parties, and I'm not sure this would hurt them -- might actually force them
to get their acts together. I'll have to look at the measures with more
care.

As for the governors, I always have a lot of sympathy for the Kremlin when
it comes to wanting to control the regional governors. It's such a big f**ng
country, and the government is so d**mnd ineffective. The governors are a
kind of blend of king of the local scene and French intendents of
departements. The Kremlin doesn't have a lot of coherent strings to pull,
carrots & sticks. The various ministries have their local branches, but
that's the government, not the Kremlin (never confuse the two). And in any
event, the Russians have similar problems as the Chinese with capture by the
locals of the regional branches of the government.With some of the regions,
it's like negotiating with a quasi-sovereign nation over whether they'll pay
taxes and how much. It's a lot more of a bother, in many ways, than the
challenge the oligarchs present. If regional elections had become a method
by which parties organized a power base and channeled policy and influence
up and down the ladder, then I'd see this as anti-democratic. I'm not all
that sure it's terribly clear cut (as one must admit is usually the case
with Russia).

As for how the populations is reacting overall, it will be a mixed bag. But
a lot of Russians would like a government that worked and wasn't so corrupt.
Putin has struck a chord there. And he basically faced up to the fact he had
personally failed on the major issue on which he had risen to power. No
bobbing and weaving on that matter unlike some other less, what's the word,
"forthright"? leaders we might mention.

Putin is sending signals he's willing to find accommodation methods with
more moderate Chechen groups. He's trying to split the rebels into those one
might do business with and outcasts. He has the broader problem of
reconciling the other fights within the Caucasus region, and the border
issues that aren't Chechen. But he's absolutely baffled by the school
massacre. That wasn't a gesture within a bargaining process that would lead
to a political resolution. Heaven knows its purpose, but it's not something
that he could respond to even if he would.

I haven't been following internal issues like the regions at all, let alone
with any care. I've been picking up some stuff on a few bits of the most
recent moves by Putin and will continue to do so, but I think I'm going to
let it ripen.

Originally posted on Tacitus August 2004
It remains timely in light of the mixture of reactions by Russia to the Beslan massacre as well as recent comments about the proper approach to "fighting terrorism" in the Presidential campaign.

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The current debate in Israel sounds extremely familiar. On one side is the head of Shin Bet, Avi Dichter, who thinks terrorism can be eliminated via force, and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz agrees. On the other side is Military Inteligence chief Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash, who thinks that they can eliminate one source, but another will pop up as long as underlying drivers of terrorism aren't addressed. His ally in theis debate is the army's chief of staff and most of the generals.

Yoel Marcus, in an Aug 6 op-ed in haaretz, feigns frustration that Israel's defense and intelligence communities can't get their act together. But the most important point he makes is:

The Israeli macho has finally grasped that force must be combined with a political initiative. And that's a dramatic about-face if there ever was one.

The debate is echoed in US politics. The military maximalists say there's nothing to be done but wipe the terrorists out. "you can't neogtiate with them, you can't appease them." And some go further to apply this thinking to all potential Islamist threats, starting with Iran. The other side of the debate says "we don't intend to appease the bad guys, negotiation with them isn't possible. But if we just try to drain the swamp completely, we'll never be finished. We'll just be creating conditions that promote the swamp."

This debate has been starkly framed primarily by each presiential campaign attempting to characterize the approach of the other to the War on Terrorism, especially Republicans dismissing Kerry as just treating terrorism as a "criminal" matter and not a "war." Undoubtedly, however, this divergence in attitudes is widespread within the Bush Admin as well.

If even the Israeli intelligence and military services have come to question whether the maximalist approach to the use of force is achieving their goals or, instead, is making their security problems worse, perhaps the US should take a step back and learn from the Israeli experience. Learning from our own mistakes is a painful way to develop policy -- certainly it's preferable to learn from the mistakes of others.

In a four-hour session with a group of western foreign policy experts, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed a wide range of matters beyond the Beslan hostage tragedy. In pointed remarks about the support by some US officials of "Chechen separatists," evidenced by meetings and the recent grant of asylum to Ilias Akhmadov, the so-called "foreign minister" of the Chechen separatist movement.

Putin also raised another point of ongoing friction between his government and the US:

In other comments, Putin said Russia would take its own approach to democratic reform.

"We'll do this at our own pace," he said. Democracy can mean different things in different countries, he said.

"In Russia, democracy is who shouts the loudest," he said. "In the U.S., it's who has the most money."

May explain why the Kremlin has been so interested in controlling the megaphones of TV networks while being willing to leave a more lively and competitive space for newspapers.

Also suggests that the unlikely duo of President Putin and Ted Turner may have similar views on the consolidation of US mass media ownership by large corporate conglomerates. See recent comments by the "shrillionaire" at The Shrill Blog.

Via Jill Dougherty, CNN, Putin blasts US on terror stance