News: Looks like a first-step compromise has been reached that could result in a new run-off by mid-December, if Yuschenko has his way. But lots of legal twists and turns, to say nothing of behind the scenes maneuvering by Kuchma, still to come.
Today's events include:
- Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament turned out Yanukovych's government in a vote of no-confidence. Kuchma could veto parliament's move, which then would require a 2/3 vote, rather than the thin margin obtained today. He has indicated, however, he will accept the vote, and so has 60 days to install a new government. That is, of course, assuming he's still President, since his term has just expired.
- Some analysts have assumed Kuchma is likely to name parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn to head a caretaker government. Other analysts have opined that Kuchma would turn to the former head of the National Bank and head of Yanukovych's election campaign, Serhiy Tyhypko, who only gave up those posts this weekend.
- There's a general agreement that in some fashion or another there will be more voting. There are, however, several scenarios possible, and the Ukrainian Supreme Court's treatment of the cases before it (which may or may not include Yanukovych's last moment filing of complaints of fraud as well) may determine which scenario is implemented.
- The candidates and Kuchma have agreed that, prior to whatever voting next takes place, Parliament will adopt a set of reforms to the voting process, about which there seems to be a fairly wide consensus.
- All parties are stressing the importance of Ukrainian territorial integrity. Although regional barons in the east have backed off threats to split away, there is apparently a planned referendum in the Donbass region for early January to consider greater autonomy within a federation. That's a development to be watched closely.
- Yuschenko agreed that his supporters would call off their blockade of government offices, but has not withdrawn them from the streets entirely.
- AP is the only wire service so far with fairly full reports of Yushchenko's comments to the crowd after the talks. He indicated a revote of the second round could be set for as early as Dec 19.
"Our ranks mustn't shrink," Yushchenko told tens of thousands of his supporters who gathered on Kiev's central Independence Square for the 11th straight night since the election commission declared his rival the winner in a vote he says was stolen. "We mustn't leave until we have a revote date firmly set."
Hours after the deal was signed, throngs of Yushchenko's supporters continued to besiege the Cabinet and the presidential administration buildings, while thousands clad in his orange campaign colors crammed the central square under fireworks and listened to rock bands in a raucous celebration.
Yushchenko said he expected the Supreme Court to deliver a ruling Thursday on his campaign's appeal to invalidate the runoff result — based on claims of widespread violations across Yanukovych's eastern and southern strongholds. - The compromise was reached with the mediation of international representatives -- not only the European group (EU's Solana, plus the Presidents of Poland and Lithuania and the Secy Gen of the OSCE) but also, according to Interfax, Russian Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov, who arrived in Kyiv along with Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, Victor Chernmyrdin. Solana had delayed a scheduled trip to Moscow to participate in the talks, and would be discussing Ukraine in Moscow on Thursday. He has repeatedly emphasized that the situation should not affect EU-Russian relations.
Clearly, the devil's in the details, and many Yuschenko supporters fear he may have compromised too much, as reflected in entries in Foreign Notes and Le Sabot Postmoderne.
Moscow Times has a front page article on Kuchma's likely next moves -- first and foremost to ditch Yanukovych it seems. Kuchma has been pressing for a full rerun of the election, starting with the first round. A full re-run, which has been rejected by Yuschenko, would allow Kuchma and his allies to substitute another candidate for Yahukovych, and delay the process as well. By March, probably the earliest a full new election could be organized, Yuschenko's orange crowds will be off the street. Peter Lavalle's analysis, described in our earlier post, is well worth reviewing in this context. He seems to have got it spot on.
Another serious concern arguing for calming things down and getting the crowds off the streets -- apparently shared by all sides -- is the economic impact of the ongoing work stoppages. Also, there are ongoing worries about the financial system and the country's exchange rate. Authorities have said they have plenty of reserves. But as for the local banks, Moscow Times reports:
Ukrainians across the country continued a run on banks, fearing that a financial crisis will follow the political crisis. Dozens of depositors crowded outside Kiev banks hoping to withdraw their savings. The panic has been fueled by a Central Bank order limiting depositors to $1,000.
Views: Lots of first-rate reporting and analysis around the blogosphere. Crooked Timber (John Quiggin) and Fist Full of Euros publish another lengthy eyewitness report from Tarik Amar. Le Sabot Postmoderne has first-hand accounts and some great photos, including the fireworks shown above, taken in Kyiv as the crowd celebrated the Rada's no-confidence vote for Yanukovych's government.
For further discussion of the complex ways the electorate may split in the Ukraine, see Notes From Kiev and Orange Ukraine. Orange Ukraine has two interesting posts covering both the Ukrainian and Russian angles, first re Yuschenko and then re Yanukovych.
Another very interesting discussion of the Russian angle is at Fist Full of Euros, where Tobias Schwartz looks at Russia and the broader issues of the CIS with a longer-term perspective.
[Further views 12:45AM EST 12-2-04] Via Le Sabot Postmoderne, who writes: "Proof that cretinism knows no ideology -- an attack on the democracy movement from an elitist Tory-conservative perspective!"
Photos: Fireworks celebrating the downfall of Yanukovych in parliament, Le Sabot Postmoderne, Dec 1 2004.
Parliamentary deputies celebrating the non-confidence vote, Gleb Garanich, Reuters, Dec 1 2004.
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