UPDATE2 [11 Sep 2004 10:06 EDT]: According to this AFP report, the Iraqi commission charged with settling land disputes in Kirkuk has yet to process a single claim.

UPDATE: Spencer Ackerman provides some context.

"Kirkuk is the heart of Kurdistan and we ready to wage a war in order to preserve its identity and to sacrifice ourselves for what Iraqi Kurds have already achieved," said Massud Barzani.

The civil war in Iraq and South Kurdistan (which the mainstream media calls it North Iraq) will occur some day between March 2005 and July 2005 and last at least 4 months. At least 30 000 people will lose their life.

The war will be very bloody. Arabs against Kurds, partial Turkmen’s against Kurds, helped by secret Turkish military force. And probably Shiaa among themselves.

It is a disaster waiting to happen. Kerkuk would be the starting point of the civil war. Voting offices will take fire, politicians will start accusing each other for cheating and people will be start killing each other on the street.

The Arabs settlers in Kerkuk and the Kurds will start the first conflict, in the first round the Kurds take control of Kerkuk and many Arabs will be killed probably thousands. A “new” Turkmen force will surface and supported secretly by the Turkish military. Their attacks on Kurds will lead to the death of hundreds of Kurds.

A fantastic Mullah in Karbala announces a week later that it’s the duty of every Muslim to kill and massacre Kurds. Thousands of new Fedayin from south Iraq and other parts will gather in Kerkuk to fight the Kurds.

In the Kurdish city of Hawler, the Kurds start demonstrations calling upon the Turkmen’s and Arabs to stop the killings. Some Turkmen businesses down town get destroyed. Several Turkmen’s and Kurds get killed in days.

The USA starts a major operation to take over Kerkuk and create zones for different ethnic people. Meanwhile 10 000 Turkish soldiers are 20 KM inside Iraq creating an uncomfortable situation for the Kurds.

The Kurdish HPG force (The PKK guerrilla unit) joins the KDP and PUK to create the PUF (Peshmerga United Forces). The guerrilla operations starts and hundreds of Turkish soldiers are sent home in body bags. Turkey starts to get ready for major invasion.

The Kurdish Islamists join the PUF in exchange for more power in the future. The Kurdish Islamists sends in their first force into Kerkuk killing hundreds of Arabs and gets in conflict with the American forces, resulting in killing several Americans.

The USA starts working with Turkey to “remove illegal” forces in Iraq. The PUK and KDP get an offer to surrender their weapons. The Kurdish people in South Kurdistan start to demonstrate against the Americans. The situations becomes too much for the Americans.

Matthew Yglesias and Abu Aardvark are not pleased.

UPDATE [9-10-04 11:00PM] Link to other Chez Nadezhda article.