Here's the latest update:
Security sources say they are expecting attempts by insurgents or extremists to disrupt the peace leading up to and during the inauguration with possible attacks, not only against expatriates but also Kabulis themselves. This would prove an excellent opportunity for so-called ‘AGE’s’ – yet another acronym, this time for “anti-government elements” – to make their point and to frighten off international aid organizations. Once again, the aid groups are being warned to take precautions. Nevertheless, with the release of the hostages last month, I have noticed a significant rise in expatriates going to restaurants and even doing Christmas shopping in Chicken Street and the bazaars. More people, too, such as aid consultants, appear to be coming in to work on Afghanistan’s recovery, which is perhaps a good sign.
As far as the inauguration is concerned, I am seeing far more Norwegian and German soldiers in armoured vehicles driving through the streets to show presence. There are also constant over-flights by helicopters and fighter jets. I am even seeing foot patrols, which we have not witnessed much since the British were here in strength in the first half of 2002. Kabul definitely needs more foot-friendly troops in the city rather than the normal armoured columns. Enforcing security by having helmeted-soldiers hunched menacingly behind their machine guns in their vehicles is no way to establish contact with the local population.
The Americans, in particular, need to improve their public relations with ordinary Kabulis. US troops are increasingly viewed as aloof, threatening and removed from any congenial banter with local people, who resent this occupation-like approach to security. While understandably nervous, the US troops need to stop flaunting their weapons and dark glasses, and make a greater effort to communicate. They are supposedly here to protect, not to occupy. I have been talking with a lot of Afghans about the Americans. Many feel that the Americans have lost touch with the country and rely on often faulty intelligence for determining whether someone is working against the government or not.
Of course, this fortress-like mentality will only grow worse in the days ahead with US Vice President Cheney and Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld coming in. As usual, the Americans will take over the city as if it were theirs. The airport is being shut down completely except to military or VIP traffic. There is amusement if not cynicism among some Afghans that the Bush’s envoys are coming to inaugurate their own president and to provide Karzai with his marching orders, even if the majority of Afghans did vote for him.
For numerous Afghans, the real ruler in Afghanistan, of course, is US Ambassador Zalmay Khalizad. He is now widely perceived as Washington’s Viceroy and a true representative of US security and business interests in the region. Khalizad worked closely with Unocal, the American oil consortium seeking to obtain pipeline concessions with the Taliban - and United Front (Northern Alliance) during the 1990s. An Afghan-American, Khalizad spent 35 years away from his homeland, which he left in his youth for a new life in the United States.
As with much of the Afghan Diaspora, Khalizad does not appear to grasp the full realities of the on-the-ground situation. In fact, anyone with any knowledge of Afghan customs should appreciate the foolhardiness of appointing as its top representative a naturalized citizen with close family and ethnic ties to the country. As Khalizad himself recently explained, his father is buried here and his mother still lives here. Afghans, no matter who they are, will automatically pigeon-hole him as being allied to one camp or another, whether true or not. At the same time, there is a mixed sense of admiration and envy regarding Khalizad. He has clearly succeeded abroad but he also has an agenda – and political allegiance - which many of his former countrymen find suspect.
What the US needs more than anything else now is a well-informed ambassador with absolutely no personal links to the country and who is well-removed from the political fray. There are a number of experienced, potential candidates within the State Department, most of whom have been removed from the scene over the past two years. The Bush Administration evidently thinks it knows better, but these are precisely the ones who could offer the White House, and the Pentagon, the reality checks on the way forward for Afghanistan that Washington would do well to heed.
From my perch here in Pittsburgh, Khalilzad seems to have done amazing well considering the obstacles. This is the first time I've read a reasonable case suggesting otherwise; if he's becoming a liability, perhaps it's time we brought in someone perceived as more neutral. Additionally, I think the U.S. would do well to take off the sunglasses and do more mingling with the locals. Girardet also has some prudent advice for handling poppy eradication with the appropriate deftness and patience.
The first afoe European weblog awards