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Great minds and all that
nadezhda (0)   Sep 21
This Turkey Won't Fly
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One picture says it all
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Obama's exercise in rhetoric
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Obama Grand Tour and McCain Circus Roundup
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Biden has Obama's Afghan back = update - and the Pentagon too
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Bush's Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran "legacy" - updated
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Then WTF is a "bail-out"?
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Blogging making reporters more relevant
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Ignatius and Zakaria - new WaPo joint venture
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Reasserting US Hegemony: Russian rollback, Chinese containment and Iranian regime change
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What's up
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A "paddling" of lame ducks?
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Voices of the New Arab Public
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Time for a post-post-9/11 world?
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View Article  New think tank for Democrats -- Policy Center for Epistemology & Rhetoric
Mark Schmitt has a wonderful post that has an interesting set of comments (including from prak and Billmon). Although not explictly such, the post can be seen part of a related series The Decembrist has been publishing about how Democrats think and communicate policy.

The most recent installment is on the phenomenon of Democratic consultants and politicos of all ilks who are eagerly embracing the advice found in George Lakoff's Don't Think of an Elephant: Know Your Values and Frame the Debate--The Essential Guide for Progressives.

You can get an idea of Mark's take on the Lakoff-phenomenon from the title of his Decembrist post: No Guru, No Method, No "DaVinci Code." Yet this post is as much a defense of Lakoff as a take-down. He puts primary blame for the epidemic of silliness on the people doing the embracing, rather on Lakoff himself.

My comment at The Decembrist was sufficiently lengthy and "standalone" that I republish it here [minor edits made only for readability]. I'm rather pleased with the title I've given these remarks, even if I do says so myself.




My favorite Lakoff -- and where I think the best nuggets of insight are found -- are where he doesn't try to apply his cognitive approach to politics per se.

I'd reach even further back in time than Mark -- to the seminal Metaphors We Live By. It was one of the core applications of related ideas in Berger & Luckmann's equally seminal The Social Construction of Reality : A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge.

Lakoff's and Mark Johnson's "metaphors" were an epiphany. By now, the perspective they presented has been thoroughly incorporated into how Americans see things in their information marketplace, even if some of us aren't totally "fluent" yet in metaphors, narratives and frames. Certainly this stuff is mothers milk today for the successful marketing and advertising hacks Billmon's talking about, whether they work in the political sphere or are just flogging commercial products.

The research program of Lakoff and his co-authors over the past few decades, or of cognitionists (somebody help me out, what's the right term?) who are heavily influenced by his core ideas, is similarly rich with ways of understanding how the process of talking about what we think has such a reciprocal effect with the way we think, and even what we think/believe. Those concepts have endless application to politics.

The giant Lakoff-hug happening now just illustrates that we always need somebody to be the popularizer of these sorts of ideas. Most political hacks -- Democrats or Republicans -- aren't going to trawl through the rather dense pages of current debates on such relevant issues as epistemology, heuristics and decision-making in quick-time, and how all of that is being affected by the acceleration of the unintermediated horizontal flow of information and ideas represented by the internet.

We need the Malcolm Gladwells and James Surowieckis to do that for us, as in their week-long BookClub discussion in Slate earlier this month. But even that step isn't enough. We then we need another round of popularizing -- to take the concepts and insights that have been boiled down and reframed by the Gladwells et al and then show how they apply in a particular setting. In the case at hand, the realm of domestic politcs.

This process isn't somehow unique for the fighters and their managers in the arena of political combat. It's the same for the business managers and marketing professionals who apply new insights emerging from cognitive neuroscience and its various "liberal arts" counterparts -- whether linguistics, rhetoric, neuroeconomics, etc. The business-types have one big advantage over the political-types, however. The B-schools produce first-rate popularizers of these concepts. The B-school professors do the trawling for nuggets for the managers, and do the digesting, synthesizing and finding real-world case studies to apply these ideas.

Business types and politicos have this behavior in common: thinking they've found the guru and the silver bullet when all they've found is the "flavor of the month." A favorite object of B-school studies is the company that got screwed up by management's over-eager embrace of "lessons" taken out of context from the latest business-best-seller. So the fact that practitioners of Democratic strategy and communication think they have found the recipe for gold shouldn't come as a surprise.

I certainly agree with Mark that we need people who digest insights "...like Lakoff's, and some insight from a historian like Alan Brinkley or Kevin Mattson, and some insight from an economist like, say, Edward Wolff, and a sociologist here and a journalist or three, and put them in perspective and integrate them." I also think he makes a very important point that it takes an old-fashioned cross-disciplinary "liberal arts" mentality to do that. We all pay a price for the narrowing academic professionalization/specialization of the humanities and social sciences.

I'd add that it's not just a matter of finding people with the right breadth of mind to do the digesting and thinking for the vast majority of us who aren't going to do it ourselves. I'd suggest an equally important part of the overall problem is the absence of a group of competent popularizers who can do the same thing for politics as the B-school professors do for business and marketing.

As Mark points out, it's really rather unfair to Lakoff to expect him to be intellectual innovator, applied research scientist, and popularizer all in one. Unfortunately, I think Lakoff's not applied some lessons from his own important work to himself. But he's not the first intellectual to be blinded a bit by the bright lights of the public stage.

Maybe while we're talking about expanding Democratic-oriented policy centers and think tanks we should add a "Policy Center for Epsitemology and Rhetoric" to do the popularizing?
View Article  Social Security (il)literacy in the press -- the WSJ gets it right.
The WashPost and NYT may be challenged when it comes to understanding the facts and politics of economic policy debates, but the WSJ is another kettle of fish all together. Why oh why can't the editorial page of the WSJ be written by their staff reporters and analysts? The staff is really quite good.

See the nice piece today by Steve Leisman "Social Security Problem Solving: Bush Touts Privatization As an Answer; Does It Address the Right Question?" The title of the article kinda says it all, huh? Could have been written by DeLong and Diamond, or, in his "frame mode," Yglesias.
[...]
Before we decide if privatization is the answer, we had better figure out as a nation which question it's answering.

Do we view privatizing as the only way to make Social Security financially solvent? Or do we increasingly believe people should take more responsibility for their retirement from the government? If it's the latter, are we willing to live with the periodic losses that inevitably will be accrued as a result of these new investing freedoms?

Financial solvency for Social Security appears the least compelling reason to privatize -- even if the Bush administration relies on it most. By repeating concerns about a looming financial crisis, the administration is hoping to galvanize support for privatization. The trouble is, privatization doesn't resolve the financial issue, certainly not by itself and definitely not for a long time.

Social Security taxes will generate enough revenue to pay promised benefits until 2018. If you include money the federal budget owes Social Security -- the so-called Social Security Trust Fund -- then there's enough money until 2042.
[...]
[quoting CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin] "Privatization is the second step in a two-step dance. The first step is an important step, that is, addressing the long-term gap between outlays … and revenues dedicated to Social Security. That gap has to be closed somehow. Privatization does not finance that gap.''

As the administration already has acknowledged, the gap can only be closed by cutting guaranteed benefits or raising taxes.

Treasury Secretary John Snow is openly talking with Wall Street about borrowing between $1 trillion and $2 trillion over 10 years to pay for privatization. Since ours is a pay-as-you-go system, the borrowed money will replace the payroll taxes that now go to pay the benefits of current retirees but will be diverted into private accounts.

The only savings we'll get out of this is if the government cuts the guaranteed benefits, offering workers the opportunity to make up the difference with greater returns through investments. While the costs are immediate, the payoff for the government isn't for many decades. If we're privatizing to save money, it seems at least reasonable to consider the long-term costs of other ideas. Some of those include a combination of higher taxes and reduced benefits implemented over a long period.

So there must be other reasons.

In fact, privatization is part of a greater change in the zeitgeist, in which we're increasingly less likely to look to the government to solve our problems.
[...]
I add that support for privatization is even more striking given the recent collapse of the stock market bubble and the headline-grabbing problems of several pension programs. If the blow-up of employee pensions at Enron Corp. doesn't scare Americans from Social Security privatization, it's hard to imagine what will. More Americans than ever have first-hand experience with the inherent risk of equities, suggesting maybe we know what we're getting into.

And that's really the most important part of this debate. People are going to have to acknowledge the facts of privatization: It isn't about the financial insolvency of Social Security, at least not in the first instance.

Let's acknowledge that we are moving to a fundamentally different system, from one with guaranteed benefits to one with inherent risk where we are free to make investment decisions that could lead to greater gain or loss. The possibility of some losing money in the stock market could result in a standard of living for some retirees that we have found unacceptable in the past -- what led us to create Social Security in the first place.

And let's acknowledge the costs of that. Security isn't free, it has a price and we pay it through the relatively low returns of the existing program.

Instead of talking about how the process isn't risky, the president should stand up and say: "This is potentially risky. You could win or you could lose. But we're going to let you -- not the government -- make the choice, reap the rewards and book the losses.''

Privatization of Social Security is a solution to a problem. Let's just be really clear what problem it's solving.

Yessssss!
View Article  Latinos for Kerry after all
Well this should bring a sigh of relief to Matthew Yglesias, who's been fretting ever since Nov 3 about the hard-to-explain boost of Bush support from Latino voters.

NBC Makes Unprecedented Downward Correction in Latino Support for Bush

18-point Margin of Victory for Democrat Kerry Among Hispanics Doubles Previous NBC Estimates; Numbers Affirm WCVI Criticism of National Exit Poll Figures

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- In a stunning admission, an elections manager for NBC News said national news organizations overestimated President George W. Bush's support among Latino voters, downwardly revising its estimated support for President Bush to 40 percent from 44 percent among Hispanics, and increasing challenger John Kerry's support among Hispanics to 58 percent from 53 percent. The revision doubles Kerry's margin of victory among Hispanic voters from 9 to 18 percent. Ana Maria Arumi, the NBC elections manager also revised NBC's estimate for Hispanic support for Bush in Texas, revising a reported 18-point lead for Bush to a 2-point win for Kerry among Hispanics, a remarkable 20-point turnaround from figures reported on election night. [...]
The more information comes out about the exit polls, when they were right and where they were wrong, and actual voting behavior (to say nothing of actual counting of ballots), it looks like we should hold off on any more "revise Democratic strategy" sessions until at least January, when more reliable data can be assembled and analyzed with some degree of confidence.

Donkey Rising has more here and here on the ongoing revision of Hispanic numbers, and here on the declining Bush margin as the raw vote totals are finalized state-by-state.